Manabu Saeki

Presidential Elections and the Electoral College : Representation, Vote Decision, and Electoral Result Manabu Saeki

Examines the presidential elections from 1832 to 2020 and reveals that the unequal representation of popular vote among states and wasted votes received by popular vote winners are major causes of the split between the popular vote result and Electoral College result. During the 2020 presidential election, it was possible, if unlikely, for a candidate to win the election by winning only 21 percent of the popular vote in the nation. Inversely, it was possible for a candidate to win 79 percent of popular vote and still lose the election.

Examining presidential elections from 1832 to 2020, Manabu Saeki reveals that the unequal representation of popular vote among states and wasted votes received by popular vote winners are major causes of the split between the popular vote result and Electoral College result. An average voter in the most overrepresented state holds Electoral College votes that are approximately twice as many as those of the average voter nationwide and four times larger than those of the most underrepresented state. Republican candidates today tend to win a significantly larger number of overrepresented states, thereby winning a larger number of Electoral College votes relative to the number of popular votes they win.

However, Republican candidates also suffer more wasted votes than Democratic candidates. Further, Saeki analyzes the vote decision by individual voters. Voters with strong racist and/or authoritarian inclinations tended to vote for a Republican candidate prior to, as well as after, the 2016 election.

There is no indication that Donald Trump mobilized the voters with racist or authoritarian predispositions.