Gabriel Makuei

Projection of Melbourne's Population Through Years of (2011 to 2031) Gabriel Makuei

The primary objective of this project is to produce population projections for all the statistical local areas in Melbourne through (2011- 2031) using demographic drivers. The secondary objective is to develop an understating of the demographic factors that affecting population change. The study projects population for the 79 SLAs of Melbourne. Like the ABS method, a cohort component method used to produce the population projection. The assumptions are made for demographic drivers that are significant for population change. The demographic drivers were: fertility, mortality, oversea migration and internal migration. The study used the assumptions as the ABS does in producing population projections. They are formulated on the basic of demographic trends of the past decade and longer, in Australia and overseas. It is noted that the differences between the population projections produced in the study compared to ABS?s projections increase over time. As net overseas migration is concerned it is noted that by 2031, doubling the NOM will result in population increase of 11% in Melbourne. Finally, the high population growth will be expected in SLAs? of Wyndham, Melton, Hume,