Tonny J. Oyana

Flood Loss Estimate Model: Recasting Flood Disaster Assessment and Mitigation for Haiti, the Case of Gonaives Tonny J. Oyana

This study aims at developing a model to estimate flood damage cost caused in Gonaives, Haiti by Hurricane Jeanne in 2004. In order to reach this goal, the influence of income, inundation duration and inundation depth, slope, population density and distance to major roads on the loss costs was investigated. Surveyed data were analyzed using Excel and ArcGIS 10 software. The ordinary least square and the geographically weighted regression analyses were used to predict flood damage costs. Then, the estimates were delineated using voronoi geostatistical map tool. As a result, the factors account for the costs as high as 83%. The flood damage cost in a household varies between 24,315 through 37,693 Haitian Gourdes (approximately 607.875 through 942.325 U. S. Dollars). Severe damages were spotted in the urban area and in the rural section of Bassin whereas very low and low losses are essentially found in Labranle. The urban area was more severely affected by comparison with the rural area. Damages in the urban area are estimated at 41,206,869.57USD against 698,222,174.10 17,455,554.35USD in the rural area. In the urban part, damages were more severe in Raboteau-Jubilée and in Downtown