Roberto F. Aguilera

The Availability of Global Fossil Energy: How Long Will It Last? Roberto F. Aguilera

There is concern within some factions of the energyindustry about an approaching global crisis caused bypeak oil production. To shed light on the subject,this book assesses the threat that depletion poses tothe availability of fossil energy resources. It doesso by estimating cumulative supply curves forconventional petroleum (oil, gas, and natural gasliquids) and for three unconventional sources ofliquids (heavy oil, oil sands, and oil shale). Theanalysis extends the important study conducted by theUS Geological Survey (2000) on this topic by takingaccount of (1) conventional petroleum resources fromprovinces not assessed by the Survey or otherorganizations, (2) future reserve growth, (3)unconventional sources of liquids, and (4) productioncosts. The results indicate that large quantities ofconventional and unconventional resources areavailable and can be produced at costs substantiallybelow current market oil prices of around US$140 perbarrel. These findings suggest that fossil energy islikely to last far longer than many are nowpredicting and that depletion need not drive marketprices above the relatively high levels prevailingover the past several years.