Ingrid Hamm

Demographic Change in Germany: The Economic and Fiscal Consequences Ingrid Hamm 2008 edition

Marc Notes: Includes bibliographical references and indexes. Table of Contents: Contributing Authors -- Consequences of Demographic Change in Germany: An Introduction / Helmut Seitz, Martin Werding -- 1. Motivation for this Book -- 2. The Contributions: An Overview -- Demographic Change in Germany / Charlotte Hhn, Ralf Mai, Frank Micheel -- 1. Adressing the Issue -- 2. The Demographic Development in Germany -- 2.1. Trends in Fertility -- 2.2. Trends in Mortality -- 2.3. Migration Dynamics -- 2.4. Demographic Balance -- 3. Future Trends Until 2050 -- 3.1. Assumptions of the 11th Co-ordinated Population Prospects -- 3.2. Population Decline -- 3.3. Population Aging -- 3.4. Can Population Aging Be Reversed by Demographic Instruments? -- 4. Regional Aspects of Population Dynamics -- 4.1. Fertility and Mortality -- 4.2. Internal Migration -- 4.3. Regional Patterns of Demographic Change -- 4.4. Outlook: Growing or Diminishing Regional Disparities -- 5. Implications for Society, Economy, and Policy Makers: Challenge or Catastrophe? -- References -- The Effects of Aging on Labor Markets and Economic Growth / Willi Leibfritz, Werner Roeger -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Main Determinants of Economic Growth -- 2.1. Some Methodological Observations -- 2.2. Past Growth Trends -- 3. Future Demographics and Growth -- 3.1. Impact Through Labor Supply -- 3.2. Impact Through Labor Productivity -- 4. Long-Term Growth Scenarios -- 4.1. Growth Scenarios by the OECD -- 4.2. Growth Scenarios by the EU Commission -- 5. Conclusions -- References -- The Impact of Global Aging on Capital Markets and Housing / Axel Brsch-Supan -- 1. Introduction -- 2. The Asset Meltdown Debate -- 3. Aging and the Markets for Productive Capital -- 3.1. A Model of Overlapping Generations: The MEA-OLGA Model -- 3.2. The Development of Household Savings -- 3.3. Trends in Returns on Capital -- 3.4. Diversification Effects of Global Capital Markets -- 4. Aging and Housing Markets -- 5. Summary and Outlook -- References -- Social Insurance: How to Pay for Pensions and Health Care? / Martin Werding -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Methodology -- 3. Assumptions and Intermediate Results -- 4. Projections for Individual Branches of Social Insurance -- 4.1. The Statutory Pension Scheme -- 4.2. Public Health Insurance -- 4.3. Public Long-Term Care Insurance -- 4.4. Unemployment Insurance -- 5. Sustainability of the Social Insurance System -- 5.1. Aging and General Government Fiscal Balances -- 5.2. Implicit Social Insurance Debt -- 5.3. The EPC's Sustainability Gap -- 6. Policy Options -- References -- The Impact of Demographic Change on Fiscal Policy in Germany / Helmut Seitz -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Institutional Framework -- 3. Methodology -- 4. Data and Empirical Results -- 4.1. Estimating Age-Cost Profiles -- 4.2. The Impact of Demographic Change on Public Expenditures, 2004-2030 -- 4.3. Building a More Complete Model -- 4.4. Simulation Results -- 5. Summary and Conclusions -- References -- Education and Fertility in Germany / Michaela Kreyenfeld, Dirk Konietzka -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Education and Fertility -- 2.1. Theoretical Considerations -- 2.2. Germany's Socio-Political Context -- 3. Data -- 4. Descriptive Results -- 5. Analysis of the Event-History Model -- 5.1. Transition to First Births -- 5.2. Transitions to the Second and Third Child -- 6. Conclusions -- References -- Perspectives on the Political Governance of Demographic Change / Johannes Meier -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Demographic Challenges in Germany -- 2.1. Shrinkage -- 2.2. Aging -- 2.3. Heterogeneity -- 3. Challenges for Governance of Demographic Change -- 4. Budget Consolidation as a Core Challenge -- 5. Key Factors of Success for Good Governance of Demographic Change -- 5.1. Experiences from Other Countries -- 5.2. Implications for Germany -- 6. Conclusion -- Subject Index -- Name Index. Publisher Marketing: This book provides an up-to-date summary of the consequences of demographic aging for labor markets, financial markets, economic growth, social security schemes and public finances in Germany, essentially reflecting the present state of knowledge in any of these areas. Compared to other industrialized countries, Germany offers an important example as the country is hit particularly strongly by demographic aging, a process that will become acute over the next three to five decades. The reasons for this as well as the implications for German public policies are also discussed in the book. All contributions are written by leading experts in their fields and are based on results that emerge at the forefront of current research. They are presented in a way that is meant to be accessible not only for specialized scholars, but for interested readers with a non-technical background as well.

Contributor Bio:  Hamm, Ingrid Ingrid Hamm is vice president of the media division at the Bertelsmann Foundation. Contributor Bio:  Werding, Martin Martin Werding is Head of the Department of Social Policy and Labor Markets at the Ifo Institute for Economic Research and the editor of "Structural Unemployment in Europe: Reasons and Remedies" (MIT Press, 2006).