National Intelligence Council

North Africa National Intelligence Council

Following the publication in 2008 of the National Intelligence Assessment on the National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030, the National Intelligence Council (NIC) embarked on a research effort to explore in greater detail the national security implications of climate change in six countries/regions of the world: India, China, Russia, North Africa, Mexico and the Caribbean, and Southeast Asia and the Pacific Island states. For each country/region, we are adopting a three-phase approach.* In the first phase, contracted research-such as this publication-explores the latest scientific findings on the impact of climate change in the specific region/country.* In the second phase, a workshop or conference composed of experts from outside the Intelligence Community (IC) will determine whether anticipated changes from the effects of climate change will force inter- and intra-state migrations, cause economic hardship, or result in increased social tensions or state instability within the country/region.* In the final phase, the NIC's Long-Range Analysis Unit (LRAU) will lead an IC effort to identify and summarize for the policy community the anticipated impact on US national security.