Richard Charnin

Reclaiming Science: the Jfk Conspiracy: a Mathematical Analysis of Unnatural Deaths, Witness Testimony, Altered Evidence and Media Disinfo Richard Charnin

Publisher Marketing: When Richard Charnin saw the film Executive Action in 1973, he was astounded when the narrator disclosed that an actuary engaged by the London Sunday Times calculated a one in 100,000 trillion probability of eighteen material JFK-related witness deaths in the three years following the assassination. As a quantitative analyst with three degrees in applied mathematics, Charnin recognized that the calculation was mathematical proof of a conspiracy. After all, a professional actuary who has passed difficult mathematical exams would be expected to come up with a good estimate of the odds; that is what he does for a living. But in 1978 the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA) dismissed the actuary's odds, stating they were invalid and that the universe of witnesses was "unknowable." The HSCA never showed the actuary's methodology. In 1989 Jim Marrs published Crossfire in which he listed 103 convenient JFK-related deaths. Along with Jim Garrison's On the Trail of the Assassins, Crossfire was the basis for Oliver Stone's JFK. In 2003, using Marrs' list, Charnin calculated the probability of at least 15 unnatural witness deaths in the first year, essentially confirming the actuary's calculation. The HSCA did not consider unnatural deaths which comprised the majority of suspicious deaths; it noted just 21 deaths when there were at least 122 by 1978. Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy is based on a statistical analysis of unnatural JFK-related deaths, Dealey Plaza eyewitness observations, medical, acoustic and photographic evidence. Warren Commission defenders and the Corporate Media avoid the evidence and continue to promote the bogus Single Bullet Theory and look like fools doing it. They claim that Oswald was the lone shooter, despite overwhelming evidence that he was not on the 6th floor of the Texas Book Depository but rather in front on the first floor watching the motorcade. As a result, the mainstream media has lost all credibility and must be considered complicit in the ongoing 50 year cover-up. Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy is a challenge to the media to let real scientific experts present the facts. Let the experts debate the Warren Commission apologists in full public view. It will be no contest. Contributor Bio:  Charnin, Richard I graduated from Queens College (NY) in 1965 with a BA in Mathematics. My first job was a numerical control engineer/programmer for Grumman Aerospace Corporation, a major defense/aerospace manufacturer (lunar module). I obtained an MS in Applied Mathematics (Adelphi University, 1969) and an MS in Operations Research (Polytechnic Institute of NY, 1973). In 1976, I moved on to Wall Street as manager/developer of corporate finance quantitative applications for White Weld & Co, an old-line investment bank that was acquired by Merrill Lynch in 1978. When personal computers first became available in 1982, I converted many of the mainframe FORTRAN application programs to Lotus 1-2-3 spreadsheets - and years later to Excel. As an independent software consultant, I specialized in quantitative applications development for major domestic and foreign financial institutions, investment firms and industrial corporations. In July 2004 I began posting weekly election projections based on state and national pre-election polls. In the 1988-2008 presidential elections, the Democrats won the exit polls by 52-42%; they won the recorded vote by just 48-46%, an 8% discrepancy. Of the 274 state presidential exit polls, 135 exceeded the margin of error (131 in favor of the Republicans). The probability is E-116. Just 14 of the 274 exit polls would be expected to exceed the margin of error. In 2008, I exactly forecast Obama's recorded vote (365 EV, 53% vote share). The Monte Carlo simulation indicated he had a 100% EV win probability. But the True Vote Model indicated that Obama had 420 EV and a 58% vote share, exactly matching the unadjusted exit polls. In 2012, the Election Model recorded vote forecast was once again on the money (332 EV, 51%). His EV win probability was 100%. But the TVM indicated that Obama had 391 EV and 55%. The National Election Pool (six corporate media giants) decided not to exit poll in 19 states. The 31 unadjusted exit polls have not been released.