Michael Eisenstadt

Iraq and After: Taking the Right Lessons for Combating Weapons of Mass Destruction Michael Eisenstadt

Publisher Marketing: Recent proliferation surprises in the Middle East-the failure to find weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in Iraq, Libya's decision to eliminate its WMD, and evidence of significant progress by Iran toward a nuclear weapons capability-underscore the need for the nonproliferation community to reassess some of its key assumptions about WMD proliferation and the nature of the evolving international landscape. Such a reassessment must be highly speculative. Much about Iraq's WMD programs is likely to remain a mystery due to the destruction of records and the looting of facilities following the fall of Baghdad, as well as the continuing silence of many Iraqi weapons scientists and former government officials.1 Likewise, the calculations driving key proliferation-related decisions by Libya and Iran remain murky. This lack of knowledge, however, should not inhibit attempts to grasp the implications of these developments for U. S. nonproliferation and counterproliferation policy. Although this paper focuses primarily on Iraq, it also seeks to draw lessons from recent experiences in Libya and Iran to understand better how proliferators think about WMD; the challenges in assessing the status and sophistication of developing world WMD programs; the contours of the emerging international proliferation landscape; and the efficacy of various policy instruments available to the United States for dealing with these so-called ultimate weapons. Contributor Bio:  Eisenstadt, Michael Eisenstadt is a senior fellow at The Washington Institute specializing in Persian Gulf and Arab-Israeli security affairs. Contributor Bio:  University, National Defense Alexander Woodcock is currently Principal Operations Research Analyst at MITRE Corporation, a consultant to the National Defense University, and an Affiliate Professor at the School of Public Policy, George Mason University. He is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Medicine, a foreign member of the Royal Swedish Academy of War Sciences, and a full member of Sigma Xi. He was a consultant to the Institute for Defense Analyses, the Naval Research Laboratory, and the intelligence community. He was also a Senior Research Professor and Director of the Societal Dynamics Research Center at the School of Public Policy, George Mason University. Dr. Woodcock was Chief Scientist, Vice President, and Director of the Advanced Mathematics Program, BAE SYSTEMS-Portal Solutions (formerly Synectics Corporation), a Guest Professor at the Swedish National Defence College, and a Visiting Professor at The Royal Military College of Science, England. He is the author of Assessing Iraq's Future, published by the Royal Swedish Academy of War Sciences and co-editor with John Dockery of The Military Landscape: Mathematical Models of Combat. Dr. Woodcock has a PhD in biology and an MSc in biophysics from the University of East Anglia, England, and a BSc with Honours in physics from Exeter University, England. Samuel Musa is a Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Technology and National Security Policy (CTNSP) of the National Defense University. He has held the Homeland Security Science and Technology Chair at CTNSP. He was previously Associate Vice President for Strategic Initiatives and Professor of electrical and computer engineering at Northwestern University. He has served in various positions in academia, government, and industry, including University of Michigan, University of Pennsylvania, Institute for Defense Analysis, and Office of the Secretary of Defense. Dr. Musa served on the Defense Intelligence Advisory Board, Arm y Science Board, and Air Force Scientific Advisory Board. He was Executive Secretary of Defense Science Board Summer Studies and Task Forces, and a member of the Scientific and Technical Intelligence Committee of the Director of Central Intelligence. Dr. Musa received his BA and BS degrees in Electrical Engineering from Rutgers University, and MS and PhD degrees in Applied Physics from Harvard University.