Spence, Michael, BA, (University of Oxford)

Next Convergence Spence, Michael, BA, (University of Oxford)

Marc Notes: Originally published: New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011.; Includes index. Review Quotes: "In recent years, developing countries have become an increasingly important driver of growth in the world economy, bringing about the prospect of a new and multi-polar landscape of the global economy in which the traditional gap in living standards between developing and advanced countries may possibly disappear. Michael Spence has written a succinct and clear analysis of the forces behind this fascinating process that is immensely readable, yet does justice to the complexity of the issues involved. Among the many books written on the new world economy this is one of the most profound. A must-read for everyone interested in the mega-trends shaping the future of the world economy."--Justin Yifu Lin, World Bank Senior Vice President and Chief Economist "Rarely does one find a book that is so powerful in its analysis, timely in its topic, relevant in its thinking, and clear in its exposition. Combining his Nobel Prize winning theoretical brilliance and unmatched operational experience, PReview Quotes:"Contrary to his book's title, Nobel Prize-winning economist Spence does less prognosticating than one might expect. Indeed, early on he shares a chart showing just how inaccurately economists predicted growth during the 1990s. Instead, he offers a comprehensive summary of the forces at play in today's global economy: removal of trade barriers, the lightning-fast transfer of knowledge from developed to emerging economies, global demand, resources, the role of national and international governments, and the management (or not) of currency rates, among others. Spence's style is pretty flat (Where's John Kenneth Galbraith when we need him?), and he seems to underestimate the looming role of climate change in any economic scenario. Yet his status report could give attentive readers a more empowered role in their own economic future."--Alan Moores, "Booklist""In recent years, developing countries have become an increasingly important driver of growth in the world economy, bringing aboutReview Quotes: "Michael Spence has long been pointing out the frictions that interfere with efficient markets . . . [He]has much to offer from a rich career in research, academia and global policymaking."-- "The Economist""Contrary to his book's title, Nobel Prize-winning economist Spence does less prognosticating than one might expect. Indeed, early on he shares a chart showing just how inaccurately economists predicted growth during the 1990s. Instead, he offers a comprehensive summary of the forces at play in today's global economy: removal of trade barriers, the lightning-fast transfer of knowledge from developed to emerging economies, global demand, resources, the role of national and international governments, and the management (or not) of currency rates, among others. Spence's style is pretty flat (Where's John Kenneth Galbraith when we need him?), and he seems to underestimate the looming role of climate change in any economic scenario. Yet his status report could give attentive readers aReview Quotes: "Cogent, comprehensive, and compelling, his book sorts out the issues, forces and trends driving 'the Inclusiveness Revolution, ' the challenges facing China and India, and the impact on incomes, natural resources, and the environment."--Glenn C. Altschuler, "The Huffington Post" "Michael Spence has written an intelligent, rational and humane book about the great economic event of our era: convergence, or the rapid rise of once poor countries. Anyone seeking a common-sense guide to the transformation under way need look no further . . . Readers will learn a great deal."--Martin Wolf, "The Financial Times" "[A] sharp new book . . . It's rare to hear an economist raise even theoretical doubt over such a deeply ingrained assumption in Western economies."--"Reuters" "Michael Spence has long been pointing out the frictions that interfere with efficient markets . . . [He]has much to offer from a rich career in research, academia and global policymaking."-- "The Economist""Contrary to hisBiographical Note: Michael Spence is a Professor of Economics at the Stern School of Business at New York University, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, and was the chairman of the independent Commission on Growth and Development. Winner of the Nobel 2001 Prize in Economic Sciences, he lives in California and Italy. Review Quotes: "The global economy is too complicated for slogans. Which is one reason why Michael Spence's new book is so refreshing. Spence, who shared the Nobel Prize in economics with Joseph Stiglitz in 2001, has systematically investigated the origins of hypergrowth, the process through which national economies rise from poverty to relative prosperity. In "The Next Convergence," he presents a nuanced, highly readable argument on the symbiotic, fraught relationship between today's booming developing markets and the seemingly stagnant developed ones."--Daniel Gross, "The Washington Post" "Cogent, comprehensive, and compelling, his book sorts out the issues, forces and trends driving 'the Inclusiveness Revolution, ' the challenges facing China and India, and the impact on incomes, natural resources, and the environment."--Glenn C. Altschuler, "The Huffington Post" "Michael Spence has written an intelligent, rational and humane book about the great economic event of our era: convergence, or the rapid rise of once poor countries. Anyone seeking a common-sense guide to the transformation under way need look no further . . . Readers will learn a great deal."--Martin Wolf, "The Financial Times" "[A] sharp new book . . . It's rare to hear an economist raise even theoretical doubt over such a deeply ingrained assumption in Western economies."--"Reuters" "Michael Spence has long been pointing out the frictions that interfere with efficient markets . . . [He]has much to offer from a rich career in research, academia and global policymaking."-- "The Economist""Contrary to his book's title, Nobel Prize-winning economist Spence does less prognosticating than one might expect. Indeed, early on he shares a chart showing just how inaccurately economists predicted growth during the 1990s. Instead, he offers a comprehensive summary of the forces at play in today's global economy: removal of trade barriers, the lightning-fast transfer of knowledge from developed to emerging economies, global dReview Quotes: "Impressive... Spence offers deep insights with a winning, refreshing humility rarely seen in Nobel Prize-winning economists."--"The Washington Post""" "An intelligent, rational, an dhumane book about the great economic event of our era... Anyone seeking a commonsense guide to the transformation underway need look no further."--"Financial Times" (London)"" "Cogent, comprehensive, and compelling... Especially trenchant and timely."--"The Huffington Post""" ""Rarely does one find a book that is so powerful in its analysis, timely in its topic, relevant in its thinking, and clear in its exposition.... This is by far the best book I have seen on today's historical growth transformation."--Mohamed A. El-Erian, author of When Markets Collide""" "Fascinating... Having Spence as a brilliant guide, intimate with both the research and policy frontiers, is a perfect way to get up to speed.... Engaging, intellectual treatments like this one will surely make progress easier."--"Science"Table of Contents: Preface -- Introduction -- Part 1. The Global Economy and Developing Countries -- 1. 1950: The Start of a Remarkable Century -- 2. Static Views of a Changing World -- 3. Postwar Changes in the Global Economy -- 4. The Origins of the Global Economy -- 5. Economic Growth -- 6. Common Questions About the Developing World and the Global Economy -- Part 2. Sustained High Growth in the Developing World -- 7. The High-Growth Developing Countries in the Postwar Period -- 8. The Opening of the Global Economy -- 9. Knowledge Transfer and Catch-up Growth in Developing Countries -- 10. Global Demand and Catch-up Growth -- 11. The Internal Dynamics of Sustained High Growth -- 12. Key Internal Ingredients of Sustained High-Growth Recipes -- 13. Opening Up: An Issue of Speed and Sequencing -- 14. The Washington Consensus and the Role of Government -- 15. Managing One's Currency in the Course of Growth -- 16. The Middle-Income Transition -- 17. The Political, Leadership, and Governance Underpinnings of Growth -- 18. Low-Growth Economies in the Developing World -- 19. Natural Resource Wealth and Growth -- 20. The Challenge for Small States -- 21. The Adding-Up Problem -- Part 3. The Crisis and its Aftermath -- 22. Emerging Markets During and After the Global Crisis -- 23. Instability in the Global Economy and Lessons from the Crisis -- 24. Stimulus in the Crisis and the Need for Cooperative Behavior -- 25. Rebalancing the Global Economy and Its Consequences for Growth -- 26. The Excess-Savings Challenge in China -- 27. The Openness of the Global System and the WTO -- 28. Legacies of the Crisis: Slow Growth and Sovereign-Debt Issues in Advanced Countries -- 29. Periodic Systemic Risk and Investment Behavior -- Part 4. The Future of Growth -- 30. Can the Emerging Economies Sustain High Growth? -- 31. China and India -- 32. China's Structural Challenges -- 33. India's Growth, Diversification, and Urbanization -- 34. Brazil's Growth Reset -- 35. Energy and Growth -- 36. The Challenge of Climate Change and Developing-Country Growth -- 37. Information Technology and the Integration of the Global Economy -- 38. European Integration and Transnational Governance -- 39. Global Governance in a Multispeed World -- 40. The G20, the Advanced Countries, and Global Growth -- 41. Sustaining Growth: The Second Half Century of Convergence -- Notes -- Index. Publisher Marketing: A Washington Post Notable Nonfiction Book for 2011 With the British Industrial Revolution, part of the world's population started to experience extraordinary economic growth--leading to enormous gaps in wealth and living standards between the industrialized West and the rest of the world. This pattern of divergence reversed after World War II, and now we are midway through a century of high and accelerating growth in the developing world and a new convergence with the advanced countries--a trend that is set to reshape the world. Michael Spence, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences, explains what happened to cause this dramatic shift in the prospects of the five billion people who live in developing countries. The growth rates are extraordinary, and continuing them presents unprecedented challenges in governance, international coordination, and ecological sustainability. The implications for those living in the advanced countries are great but little understood. Spence clearly and boldly describes what's at stake for all of us as he looks ahead to how the global economy will develop over the next fifty years. The Next Convergence is certain to spark a heated debate how best to move forward in the post-crisis period and reset the balance between national and international economic interests, and short-term fixes and long-term sustainability. Review Citations: Booklist 05/15/2011 pg. 6 (EAN 9780374159757, Hardcover) New York Review of Books 04/05/2012 pg. 81 (EAN 9780374159757, Hardcover) Contributor Bio:  Spence, Michael Michael Spence, co-recipient of the 2001 Nobel Prize in Economics, is Professor Emeritus of Management at Stanford University's Graduate School of Business and Professor of Economics at New York University's Stern School of Business. He served as Chairman of the Commission on Growth and Development from 2006 to 2010 (the life of the commission). He is the author of "The Next Convergence: The Future of Economic Growth in a Multispeed World".